Natural rubber prices are set mainly in Asia, by futures on the Singapore Exchange (SICOM TSR20), the Osaka Exchange (RSS3) and the Shanghai exchanges, and move with weather and tapping seasons in producing countries, tyre demand (especially in China), oil prices through synthetic rubber, currencies and freight. A physical cargo of TSR20 from West Africa is usually priced at the SICOM TSR20 price for the shipment month, plus or minus a premium for origin, quality and delivery terms.
This guide explains each driver and how buyers use them. For our product, see TSR20 natural rubber from Liberia.
The benchmarks
| Market | Main contract | Used for |
|---|---|---|
| Singapore Exchange (SGX) | SICOM TSR20 | Reference price for TSR20 worldwide |
| Osaka Exchange (Japan) | RSS3 | Japanese and RSS-based pricing |
| Shanghai Futures Exchange and INE | Natural rubber and TSR20 | Chinese market sentiment and pricing |
Prices on these markets move together most of the time, but the gaps between them change with Chinese demand, currency and local stocks.
Supply: weather and seasons
Rubber trees yield less in some months. In much of Southeast Asia, output falls during the "wintering" season, when trees shed leaves, roughly in the first half of the year. Heavy rain stops tapping. Drought lowers yields. Weather patterns such as El Niño can affect several producing countries at once.
West Africa has its own cycle, with lower output in the dry season. That can create local tightness even when Asian supply is ample.
Leaf disease and ageing trees also matter over the longer term, because they reduce yields and are slow to fix. Rubber trees take around six to seven years to reach tapping age.
Demand: tyres and China
Tyres account for the largest share of natural rubber use, commonly estimated at around 70%. Tyre demand follows vehicle production, truck freight activity and replacement cycles. China is the largest consumer, so its car and truck markets, and the level of rubber stocks in Chinese bonded warehouses, are watched closely.
Oil and synthetic rubber
Synthetic rubber is made from oil and gas derivatives. When oil prices rise, synthetic rubber becomes more expensive and natural rubber more competitive, which supports its price. The link is loose, because many applications cannot easily switch between the two.
Currencies
Rubber is traded in US dollars. When producing country currencies weaken against the dollar, farmers receive more in local terms, which can encourage tapping and add supply. A strong dollar can weigh on prices.
Freight and logistics
Freight affects the delivered cost, especially for buyers far from Asia. Shorter routes from West Africa to Europe can offset some origin differences. Container rates and transhipment delays feed into the premium or discount a buyer will pay.
Regulation
The EUDR adds a new factor from 30 December 2026: rubber with complete plot-level data for EU buyers may command a premium over rubber without it. How large that premium becomes depends on how much compliant supply is available. See EUDR due diligence for rubber.
How a physical cargo is priced
A typical TSR20 quote looks like this:
| Element | Example basis |
|---|---|
| Reference | SICOM TSR20 for the shipment month |
| Premium or discount | Origin, specification, packing, EUDR data |
| Delivery terms | FOB Monrovia, or CFR or CIF destination |
| Pricing date | Fixed on contract, or fixed later against the futures price |
Buyers who want price certainty fix the price when they sign. Others agree a premium and fix the price later, sometimes hedging on SGX themselves.
Origin matters too
Different origins carry different premiums for quality, reliability, freight and compliance. Our comparison of rubber origins covers Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire and Southeast Asia. Freight and transit from West Africa are covered in shipping from Monrovia.
We do not publish prices on this site because they change daily. Request a quote for a firm offer against your volume and shipment period.